by nate
Adult life and hobbies are in a constant struggle with each other. As usual, life has beat out hobbies and I'm not completely sure if I'll get to finish my 1st round playoff preview. So why not move on?
We're at the time of the NBA season in which they begin to announce their regular season awards. Slowly, the announcements trickle through the media, giving tiny tidbits for halftime announcers to chew on and debate. So far, we know that Dwight Howard has claimed another Defensive Player award, and that its a good year to carry the surname Brooks as Aaron and Scotty won the Most Improved and Coach of the Year awards, respectively. The two biggest awards of the year have yet to be named; the Rookie of the Year, and the Most valuable Player awards.
We all know how this works; members of the media place first, second, and third place votes, each of a scaled value, that when totaled, determine the winner. What exactly are their votes based on? Performance? Value? Favoritism? Or worse, homerism? They could vote for anybody, and that fact becomes evident every year. In 2007, Brandon Roy came away with the ROY (pun intended) award averaging 17 points, 4 assists, and shooting 46% from the field. Pretty nice for a rookie. That same year, Tyson Chandler received a few votes despite averaging only 5 points, 4 rebounds, and 13 minutes per game (all lows for everyone who received a vote) and received enough votes that he beat out three other players. Just last season, Robin Lopez received a vote. ROBIN Lopez (3 points, 2 rebounds, 10 minutes per). In 2004, Marquis Daniels received a vote. Do I need to remind you who was chosen the 2003 draft? I could go on and on.
So is there an effective way to determine the winner of such awards without having to deal with sometimes preposterous and ambiguous voting? I think I may have found it.
Anyone who has played fantasy sports should be familiar with the rotisserie game. In a rotisserie game, team success is graded on overall numbers in pre-detrermined categories and then ranked. For example, in a 12-team league, the team with the highest rebound total on the season is awarded 12 points. The team with the next highest will receive 11 points all the way to the last team that will receive 1 point. This scale is used for each category and the point rankings for each category are added together in order to determine an overall score to determine ultimate team supremacy. As with everything else in fantasy leagues, stats are key. Why not use this method in determining end of the season awards? Certainly it’s not a perfect process. Many purists will argue that “leadership”, “floor presence”, “potential” and other worthless intangibles need to be involved in the equation. These are the same people who vote for Marquis Daniels when LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and Kirk Hinrich are lighting up stat sheets. There’s a time and a place for such things, but I’m not concerned with that right now.
So let’s get to it, then.
The basic fantasy basketball categories a team would be judged on are points (PTS), rebounds (TRB), assists (AST), steals (STL), blocks (BLK), three-pointers made (3PM), turnovers (TOV - used in a negative sense), field goal percentage, and free throw percentage. I’m not going to use field goal or free throw percentage so that that guy who’s made 8 of 10 free throws, but only played in 5 games, doesn’t get an unmerited boost. In it’s place, I’m going to add minutes played (MP). A rookie who gets burn has value.
58 players played in their first NBA season in 2009-2010 and each have been ranked by the numbers mentioned above. Below are the top 10.
10. Chase Budinger 327
9. Jrue Holiday 329
8. Wesley Matthews 339
7. Marcus Thornton 348
6. Omri Casspri 349
5. Jonas Jerebko 356
4. James Harden 359
3. Tyreke Evans 376
2. Brandon Jennings 379
1. Stephen Curry 388
By this ranking, Stephen Curry would be our rookie of the year. Are there many arguments to this? I know most were ready to crown Tyreke Evans, but there’s no question that Dell’s son put in work and did his thing this season, all the while not missing a game. I feel that this system could be the start of way to determine player productivity in the league. Who's the more important rookie, the most productive, or the one with the best intangible? I’d have no issues if Curry came away with the Eddie Gottlieb trophy next week. Let's see who the writers choose. Expect at least one Taj Gibson, or Terrence Williams vote.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Playoff Preview continued
by nate
Nuggets vs. Jazz
The Jazz had the division sewn up with a single win on the final day of the season. But without Boozer and AK47, they were trounced by a red-hot Suns team and gave the division title to the rival Nuggets, who they, coincidentally , will now face in the 1st round. The Jazz have lost 3 of their 4 meetings with the Nuggets. A comparison of stats shows that the Jazz own the Nuggets statistically in their matchups. The Jazz shoot more threes, they win the rebound battle, the get more assists. But three categories stand out. The Nuggets average more points (obviously) and more steals. The Nuggets steals per game goes up 2 steals against the Jazz and so do Utah’s turnovers (they average 3 turnovers more than their season average when playing the Nuggs). No other team averages more turnovers when playing the Nuggets than the Jazz. With Kirilenko indefinitely out and Boozer questionable, Deron Williams will be forced to take over. If he tries too hard and forces the issue, he could feed right into the Nuggets’ hands and create the turnovers they need to win the matchup. Deron Williams has been the 2nd best point guard in the league behind Steve Nash and he will play his heart out against the Nuggets. But I really only expect the Jazz to win 2. Nuggets in 6.
Lakers vs. Thunder
Kevin Durant has played like an MVP this year and this will be his chance to make a name for himself as a superstar talent. The Lakers have beat the Thunder in 3 of their 4 matchups, but have not left the battle unscathed. All of their stats take a significant dip, showing that the OK boys are no cakewalk. Russell Westbrook especially enjoys playing the Lakeshow with two 20-point performances, one of which was a near triple double. With no show-stopping point guard on the Lakers, Phil Jackson will have a hard time putting together a backcourt that can contain Westbrook and James Harden. But don’t be fooled, the Lakers will give up one game at the most-if the brooms don’t come out. Lakers in 5.
Nuggets vs. Jazz
The Jazz had the division sewn up with a single win on the final day of the season. But without Boozer and AK47, they were trounced by a red-hot Suns team and gave the division title to the rival Nuggets, who they, coincidentally , will now face in the 1st round. The Jazz have lost 3 of their 4 meetings with the Nuggets. A comparison of stats shows that the Jazz own the Nuggets statistically in their matchups. The Jazz shoot more threes, they win the rebound battle, the get more assists. But three categories stand out. The Nuggets average more points (obviously) and more steals. The Nuggets steals per game goes up 2 steals against the Jazz and so do Utah’s turnovers (they average 3 turnovers more than their season average when playing the Nuggs). No other team averages more turnovers when playing the Nuggets than the Jazz. With Kirilenko indefinitely out and Boozer questionable, Deron Williams will be forced to take over. If he tries too hard and forces the issue, he could feed right into the Nuggets’ hands and create the turnovers they need to win the matchup. Deron Williams has been the 2nd best point guard in the league behind Steve Nash and he will play his heart out against the Nuggets. But I really only expect the Jazz to win 2. Nuggets in 6.
Lakers vs. Thunder
Kevin Durant has played like an MVP this year and this will be his chance to make a name for himself as a superstar talent. The Lakers have beat the Thunder in 3 of their 4 matchups, but have not left the battle unscathed. All of their stats take a significant dip, showing that the OK boys are no cakewalk. Russell Westbrook especially enjoys playing the Lakeshow with two 20-point performances, one of which was a near triple double. With no show-stopping point guard on the Lakers, Phil Jackson will have a hard time putting together a backcourt that can contain Westbrook and James Harden. But don’t be fooled, the Lakers will give up one game at the most-if the brooms don’t come out. Lakers in 5.
Friday, April 16, 2010
A 2010 NBA Playoff Preview
by nate
I'm a stat-guy by trade. Stats can go a long way and sometimes are the key to understanding matchups. I decided to review the season matchups of the 1st round teams and see if the underdogs have a chance to pull off the upset. Here are the 1st three I got to . more to come soon (I hope - no guarantees).
Cavs vs. Bulls
Let’s have a look at what the numbers say.
The Good: The Bulls protect the ball well against the Cavs (9.3 turnovers per game, compared to 13.7 on the season. The Cavs average 102.5 points per game and are 45-5 when they score 100 or more. However, they are 16-16 when they score less than 100 and they only average 96.5 against the Bulls.
The Bad: The Bulls have struggled all season giving up second chance looks (11.2 opponent offensive rebounds) and have made no exceptions for the Cavs (11.5). The Bulls do not defend the perimete well and the guy they will need to watch out for is Mo Williams. Mo averages 16 points and 5 assists on the season, but puts up 19 and 7 when playing Chicago including a 35-point performance just last week in which he dropped 6 threes. Sure, LeBron sat that game, giving Mo Wills the green light; but if Mike Brown has learned anything about coaching since riding the LeBron-train, he will know to exploit all your opponents’ weaknesses.
The Bulls split the regular season with the Cavs (2-2) but really haven’t matched up with them well statistically. They will need to guard the perimeter and crash the boards (but try to avoid falling susceptible to the fast break) to ensure that the score stays low. They need to extend the game as long as possible do the best to hit their spots if they want to survive. With Shaq planning to come back and Lebron well rested, I don’t see it happening. Cavs in 5.
Hawks vs. Bucks:
It’s amazing to look at the Bucks’ roster and think about what could have been. Jennings + Bogut + Redd would mean a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. Now, they’re down to Jennings and role players. The Bucks went 1-2 against Atlanta this year and the stats are deceiving because this is a completely different team. Guys like Ersan Ilyasova will play a bigger role without Bogut and the dynamic has changed now that John Salmons has found his stride. Their offensive rebounds are down since losing Bogut (and their opponents’ ORBs have gone up), but their three-pointers have also gone up with the lack of post play. They’ve killed the Hawks this season with the three and only average 9 team turnovers against them.
The Bucks need to watch out for Josh Smith. He averaged almost 4 blocks against them this season and a double-double. I don’t see anyone on their roster that can keep up with Smoov. Atlanta wins in 6.
Heat vs. Celtics
Miami has struggled against Boston during the regular season, losing all three matchups. Heat opponents average only 94 points per game, but the Celtics have averaged 103 against them. The boys in green average 34 free throw attempts against the Heat, 9 more attempts than Miami opponents’ season average. Rajon Ronda is the South Beach Strangler as he is averaging 20 points and 11 assists against the revolving door that is Miami’s point guard spot. The other beast that eats the Heat is Kendrick Perkins. Perk has 2 double-doubles against them in three games and is shooting almost 70% over the three games.
Dwyane Wade and Jermaine O’neal are the only two to have any effect against the Celts statistically. Wade is averaging 34 points and 9 assists against them this season and Jermain O’neal has 13 and 7. Everyone else has been inconsistent, much like they have all season. Wade may be enough to pull out one or two games, but Spoelestra isn’t the coach to get this team over the hump. Celtics in 5.
I'm a stat-guy by trade. Stats can go a long way and sometimes are the key to understanding matchups. I decided to review the season matchups of the 1st round teams and see if the underdogs have a chance to pull off the upset. Here are the 1st three I got to . more to come soon (I hope - no guarantees).
Cavs vs. Bulls
Let’s have a look at what the numbers say.
The Good: The Bulls protect the ball well against the Cavs (9.3 turnovers per game, compared to 13.7 on the season. The Cavs average 102.5 points per game and are 45-5 when they score 100 or more. However, they are 16-16 when they score less than 100 and they only average 96.5 against the Bulls.
The Bad: The Bulls have struggled all season giving up second chance looks (11.2 opponent offensive rebounds) and have made no exceptions for the Cavs (11.5). The Bulls do not defend the perimete well and the guy they will need to watch out for is Mo Williams. Mo averages 16 points and 5 assists on the season, but puts up 19 and 7 when playing Chicago including a 35-point performance just last week in which he dropped 6 threes. Sure, LeBron sat that game, giving Mo Wills the green light; but if Mike Brown has learned anything about coaching since riding the LeBron-train, he will know to exploit all your opponents’ weaknesses.
The Bulls split the regular season with the Cavs (2-2) but really haven’t matched up with them well statistically. They will need to guard the perimeter and crash the boards (but try to avoid falling susceptible to the fast break) to ensure that the score stays low. They need to extend the game as long as possible do the best to hit their spots if they want to survive. With Shaq planning to come back and Lebron well rested, I don’t see it happening. Cavs in 5.
Hawks vs. Bucks:
It’s amazing to look at the Bucks’ roster and think about what could have been. Jennings + Bogut + Redd would mean a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. Now, they’re down to Jennings and role players. The Bucks went 1-2 against Atlanta this year and the stats are deceiving because this is a completely different team. Guys like Ersan Ilyasova will play a bigger role without Bogut and the dynamic has changed now that John Salmons has found his stride. Their offensive rebounds are down since losing Bogut (and their opponents’ ORBs have gone up), but their three-pointers have also gone up with the lack of post play. They’ve killed the Hawks this season with the three and only average 9 team turnovers against them.
The Bucks need to watch out for Josh Smith. He averaged almost 4 blocks against them this season and a double-double. I don’t see anyone on their roster that can keep up with Smoov. Atlanta wins in 6.
Heat vs. Celtics
Miami has struggled against Boston during the regular season, losing all three matchups. Heat opponents average only 94 points per game, but the Celtics have averaged 103 against them. The boys in green average 34 free throw attempts against the Heat, 9 more attempts than Miami opponents’ season average. Rajon Ronda is the South Beach Strangler as he is averaging 20 points and 11 assists against the revolving door that is Miami’s point guard spot. The other beast that eats the Heat is Kendrick Perkins. Perk has 2 double-doubles against them in three games and is shooting almost 70% over the three games.
Dwyane Wade and Jermaine O’neal are the only two to have any effect against the Celts statistically. Wade is averaging 34 points and 9 assists against them this season and Jermain O’neal has 13 and 7. Everyone else has been inconsistent, much like they have all season. Wade may be enough to pull out one or two games, but Spoelestra isn’t the coach to get this team over the hump. Celtics in 5.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Like Tiger Woods at a Perkins, I Couldn't Control Myself
by: nate
I had it all planned out. As co-creator and co-writer of this blog, I had it in my mind that we would fire things off with a nice, wholesome, feel-good introduction that lavishly portrayed what wonderful people we are and how we hoped to create an entertaining blog for all the world to enjoy. But it didn’t happen. As usual, real life has gotten in the way. In fact, the whole idea is somewhat counterproductive to why I wanted to create this site in the first place. The plan was to create a place where I could start a thought, elaborate, and if time permitted, maybe even finish that thought. Having a formal introduction would make it just that: too formal.
And Besides, there’s way too much going on in sports right now for me to sepnd time trying to create some witty way to commence this site. So let’s just get to it then.
In the news this week:
Five Kentucky players enter the NBA Draft. Kentucky 's John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe, Daniel Orton and Patrick Patterson will enter their names in this year's NBA Draft. Four of them are freshmen. How do you build on that next year? If you’re John Caliparri, you don’t. You take the Nets job and call it all a success. You know that was the whole point of taking the Kentucky job, right? He wanted a chance to showcase himself so that he would be in the spotlight when inevitable firing and hiring of NBA coaches started. Now he’ll get to be the savior for a failing club with a ton of cap space going into one of the biggest free agent off-seasons ever.
Tiki Barber leaves his wife for his intern. Just wait, it gets better: his wife is 8 months pregnant. Yes, Maury, Tiki is the father. I’m no gynecologist, but if I recall correctly, the typical human gestation period is only nine months; meaning she’s due to pop in about 30 days, while he’s running off with a 23 year old. If history truly repeats itself, we can expect the jilted Mrs. Barber to now win the Superbowl. That seems to happen when Tiki leaves.
UConn’s women’s team wins the NCAA title. Let’s face it folks, its Connecticut and everyone else at this point. 12 points in the first half and they pull off the win? Women’s ball is in a sad state right now and Geno’s taking full advantage. You know he took that trophy home, threw a wig on it and calls it “Pat.”
Tiger Woods has a new commercial. Have you seen this? Tiger uses audio of his long-passed father (clearly used out of context) in order to show that his father is chastising, yet forgiving him. Afeni Shakur and Sean Combs think this reprehensible. Dude needs to move golf merchandise and feels that he still needs to clean up his image, so he brings out footage of his dead father so that we’ll feel sorry for him? Let’s not forget that Nike logos are in plain sight through the whole ad, reminding us of the real purpose behind it all. But it will work. People will eat it up. And don’t expect this to be the only one. They’ll have a whole series of them building up to his eventual return and thus showing our true nature of fickleness cleverly disguised as forgiveness. I think it’s all unnecessary. A guy can only apologize so much. Just go play golf and get on with your life. We don’t need to see this.
I had it all planned out. As co-creator and co-writer of this blog, I had it in my mind that we would fire things off with a nice, wholesome, feel-good introduction that lavishly portrayed what wonderful people we are and how we hoped to create an entertaining blog for all the world to enjoy. But it didn’t happen. As usual, real life has gotten in the way. In fact, the whole idea is somewhat counterproductive to why I wanted to create this site in the first place. The plan was to create a place where I could start a thought, elaborate, and if time permitted, maybe even finish that thought. Having a formal introduction would make it just that: too formal.
And Besides, there’s way too much going on in sports right now for me to sepnd time trying to create some witty way to commence this site. So let’s just get to it then.
In the news this week:
Five Kentucky players enter the NBA Draft. Kentucky 's John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe, Daniel Orton and Patrick Patterson will enter their names in this year's NBA Draft. Four of them are freshmen. How do you build on that next year? If you’re John Caliparri, you don’t. You take the Nets job and call it all a success. You know that was the whole point of taking the Kentucky job, right? He wanted a chance to showcase himself so that he would be in the spotlight when inevitable firing and hiring of NBA coaches started. Now he’ll get to be the savior for a failing club with a ton of cap space going into one of the biggest free agent off-seasons ever.
Tiki Barber leaves his wife for his intern. Just wait, it gets better: his wife is 8 months pregnant. Yes, Maury, Tiki is the father. I’m no gynecologist, but if I recall correctly, the typical human gestation period is only nine months; meaning she’s due to pop in about 30 days, while he’s running off with a 23 year old. If history truly repeats itself, we can expect the jilted Mrs. Barber to now win the Superbowl. That seems to happen when Tiki leaves.
UConn’s women’s team wins the NCAA title. Let’s face it folks, its Connecticut and everyone else at this point. 12 points in the first half and they pull off the win? Women’s ball is in a sad state right now and Geno’s taking full advantage. You know he took that trophy home, threw a wig on it and calls it “Pat.”
Tiger Woods has a new commercial. Have you seen this? Tiger uses audio of his long-passed father (clearly used out of context) in order to show that his father is chastising, yet forgiving him. Afeni Shakur and Sean Combs think this reprehensible. Dude needs to move golf merchandise and feels that he still needs to clean up his image, so he brings out footage of his dead father so that we’ll feel sorry for him? Let’s not forget that Nike logos are in plain sight through the whole ad, reminding us of the real purpose behind it all. But it will work. People will eat it up. And don’t expect this to be the only one. They’ll have a whole series of them building up to his eventual return and thus showing our true nature of fickleness cleverly disguised as forgiveness. I think it’s all unnecessary. A guy can only apologize so much. Just go play golf and get on with your life. We don’t need to see this.
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