A 2010 NBA Playoff Preview

by nate

I'm a stat-guy by trade. Stats can go a long way and sometimes are the key to understanding matchups. I decided to review the season matchups of the 1st round teams and see if the underdogs have a chance to pull off the upset. Here are the 1st three I got to . more to come soon (I hope - no guarantees).

Cavs vs. Bulls

Let’s have a look at what the numbers say.

The Good: The Bulls protect the ball well against the Cavs (9.3 turnovers per game, compared to 13.7 on the season. The Cavs average 102.5 points per game and are 45-5 when they score 100 or more. However, they are 16-16 when they score less than 100 and they only average 96.5 against the Bulls.

The Bad: The Bulls have struggled all season giving up second chance looks (11.2 opponent offensive rebounds) and have made no exceptions for the Cavs (11.5). The Bulls do not defend the perimete well and the guy they will need to watch out for is Mo Williams. Mo averages 16 points and 5 assists on the season, but puts up 19 and 7 when playing Chicago including a 35-point performance just last week in which he dropped 6 threes. Sure, LeBron sat that game, giving Mo Wills the green light; but if Mike Brown has learned anything about coaching since riding the LeBron-train, he will know to exploit all your opponents’ weaknesses.

The Bulls split the regular season with the Cavs (2-2) but really haven’t matched up with them well statistically. They will need to guard the perimeter and crash the boards (but try to avoid falling susceptible to the fast break) to ensure that the score stays low. They need to extend the game as long as possible do the best to hit their spots if they want to survive. With Shaq planning to come back and Lebron well rested, I don’t see it happening. Cavs in 5.


Hawks vs. Bucks:

It’s amazing to look at the Bucks’ roster and think about what could have been. Jennings + Bogut + Redd would mean a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. Now, they’re down to Jennings and role players. The Bucks went 1-2 against Atlanta this year and the stats are deceiving because this is a completely different team. Guys like Ersan Ilyasova will play a bigger role without Bogut and the dynamic has changed now that John Salmons has found his stride. Their offensive rebounds are down since losing Bogut (and their opponents’ ORBs have gone up), but their three-pointers have also gone up with the lack of post play. They’ve killed the Hawks this season with the three and only average 9 team turnovers against them.

The Bucks need to watch out for Josh Smith. He averaged almost 4 blocks against them this season and a double-double. I don’t see anyone on their roster that can keep up with Smoov. Atlanta wins in 6.



Heat vs. Celtics

Miami has struggled against Boston during the regular season, losing all three matchups. Heat opponents average only 94 points per game, but the Celtics have averaged 103 against them. The boys in green average 34 free throw attempts against the Heat, 9 more attempts than Miami opponents’ season average. Rajon Ronda is the South Beach Strangler as he is averaging 20 points and 11 assists against the revolving door that is Miami’s point guard spot. The other beast that eats the Heat is Kendrick Perkins. Perk has 2 double-doubles against them in three games and is shooting almost 70% over the three games.

Dwyane Wade and Jermaine O’neal are the only two to have any effect against the Celts statistically. Wade is averaging 34 points and 9 assists against them this season and Jermain O’neal has 13 and 7. Everyone else has been inconsistent, much like they have all season. Wade may be enough to pull out one or two games, but Spoelestra isn’t the coach to get this team over the hump. Celtics in 5.